 &MODEL
 NOPT    =           1,
 NLIST   =           0,
 NSTEP   =        5000,
 EPSI    =  1.000000000000000E-007,
 WGHT    =   1.00000000000000     ,
 NVAX    =         164,
 NWT     =         153,
 NALT    =           4,
 NDV     =           4,
 NSV     = 3*1, 7*0,
 NGV     =           4,
 INIT    =           0,
 NCON    =           0,
 NLAM    =           4,
 NFL     =           0,
 NPRINT  =           0,
 NELAST  =           1,
 NMRS    =           0,
 NRES    =           0,
 NCOR    =           0,
 NSCALE  =           0,
 NREAD   =        1000,
 NPRED   =           0,
 NAMEVT  = bus_bc4   ,
 NUMVT   =           3,
 NAMEDEP = CHOICE    
 /


LOGIT            

 alternative  matrix of independent variables

  1  RAIL         1   0   0 124 144 126  98

  2  AIR          0   1   0  15  35  17  98

  3  BUS          0   0   1  50  70  52  98

  4  CAR          0   0   0  71  78   0   0


 parameter associated with each column above

 beta             1   2   3   4   5   6   7

 lambda           0   0   0   1   2   3   4


 box-cox transformations

 lambda   type    value

   1       1     0.00000

   2       1     0.00000

   3       1     0.00000

   4       1     0.00000




=========================================================================================================

 no. variable    type       minimum      mean       maximum    std-error  avail.obs. null obs. scal.factor

=========================================================================================================

 alternative  1 : RAIL      

   1 CONSTANT            0.10000D+01 0.10000D+01 0.10000D+01 0.00000D+00     991          0   0.10000D+01
 124 RAI_CTT   network   0.20450D+02 0.53052D+02 0.10690D+03 0.17801D+02     991          0   0.10000D+01
 144 RAI_TTT   network   0.91000D+02 0.29299D+03 0.69100D+03 0.11777D+03     991          0   0.10000D+01
 126 RAI_FR    network   0.10000D+01 0.44057D+01 0.12000D+02 0.23283D+01     991          0   0.10000D+01
  98 INCOME    soc.eco.  0.50000D+04 0.54277D+05 0.70000D+05 0.17518D+05     991          0   0.10000D+01

 alternative  2 : AIR       

   1 CONSTANT            0.10000D+01 0.10000D+01 0.10000D+01 0.00000D+00     846          0   0.10000D+01
  15 AIR_CTT   network   0.11905D+03 0.15495D+03 0.22660D+03 0.21027D+02     846          0   0.10000D+01
  35 AIR_TTT   network   0.11300D+03 0.15794D+03 0.31600D+03 0.26539D+02     846          0   0.10000D+01
  17 AIR_FR    network   0.30000D+01 0.24974D+02 0.45000D+02 0.13682D+02     846          0   0.10000D+01
  98 INCOME    soc.eco.  0.50000D+04 0.55073D+05 0.70000D+05 0.17263D+05     846          0   0.10000D+01

 alternative  3 : BUS       

   1 CONSTANT            0.10000D+01 0.10000D+01 0.10000D+01 0.00000D+00     797          0   0.10000D+01
  50 BUS_CTT   network   0.93800D+01 0.25555D+02 0.56390D+02 0.86083D+01     797          0   0.10000D+01
  70 BUS_TTT   network   0.11900D+03 0.30407D+03 0.74900D+03 0.11464D+03     797          0   0.10000D+01
  52 BUS_FR    network   0.10000D+01 0.11832D+02 0.24000D+02 0.57920D+01     797          0   0.10000D+01
  98 INCOME    soc.eco.  0.50000D+04 0.54388D+05 0.70000D+05 0.17496D+05     797          0   0.10000D+01

 alternative  4 : CAR       

  71 CAR_C     network   0.11210D+02 0.60878D+02 0.18183D+03 0.32407D+02     999          0   0.10000D+01
  78 CAR_RT    network   0.47000D+02 0.21644D+03 0.63600D+03 0.10678D+03     999          0   0.10000D+01

=========================================================================================================


 number of observations :

 - read                    1000

 - used in estimation      1000

 - with a full choice set   690

 - used in prediction         0




initialization cards for control routine follow - - id card - no. parameters , no. steps , step size ,
minimization tolerance - starting values of parameters - relative uncertainties of parameters (error estimates) -   
and starting direction (relative parameter increments for 1st step) 

        11      5000   0.1D+01   0.1D-06
 -0.31442D+01 -0.15472D+01 -0.36002D+01  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00
  0.00000D+00
  0.10000D+01  0.10000D+01  0.10000D+01  0.10000D+01  0.10000D+01  0.10000D+01  0.10000D+01  0.10000D+01  0.10000D+01  0.10000D+01
  0.10000D+01
  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00
  0.00000D+00

first entry to fcn , parameters of current step follow - - f,x(i)
   0.5237790618D+03 -0.31442D+01 -0.15472D+01 -0.36002D+01  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00
                     0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00

the function (fcn) has not improved by   0.10000D-06 after 3 steps which include a minimum - - -

therefore the run has been terminated
   0.3232366472D+03 -0.10490D+03 -0.10311D+03 -0.10934D+03 -0.12269D+01 -0.51345D-03  0.97658D+00  0.51980D+02  0.26157D+00
                     0.15194D+01  0.18089D+00 -0.51330D+00

the lowest value of the function (fcn) was  0.3232366472D+03 for entry   2667 - - x(i) follows
 -0.10490D+03 -0.10311D+03 -0.10934D+03 -0.12269D+01 -0.51345D-03  0.97658D+00  0.51980D+02  0.26157D+00  0.15194D+01  0.18089D+00
 -0.51330D+00



run statistics follow - -

 nfcn=   2667 nst=    945





VARIANT NAME bus_bc4    VARIANT NUMBER   3 DEPENDENT VARIABLE NAME CHOICE    

 variable  type lambda    parameter      std.error          t-value    gradient


 alternative  1 : RAIL      

 CONSTANT  spec   0   -0.1048983D+03  0.2347048D+01       -44.6937  0.1369486D-03
                                      0.9069647D+02        -1.1566

 RAI_CTT   gene   1   -0.1226854D+01  0.2476212D+01        -0.4955  0.4173133D-03
                                      0.2398473D+00        -5.1151

 RAI_TTT   gene   2   -0.5134487D-03  0.8249172D+02         0.0000  0.2267537D+03
                                      0.1488755D-03        -3.4488

 RAI_FR    gene   3    0.9765844D+00  0.2789466D+01         0.3501  0.1152158D-02
                                      0.1287044D+00         7.5878

 INCOME    gene   4    0.5198021D+02  0.1462563D+00       355.4048  0.3030201D-02
                                      0.4674881D+02         1.1119


 alternative  2 : AIR       

 CONSTANT  spec   0   -0.1031104D+03  0.2461028D+01       -41.8973  0.2952475D-03
                                      0.9068150D+02        -1.1371

 AIR_CTT   gene   1   -0.1226854D+01  0.2476212D+01        -0.4955  0.4173133D-03
                                      0.2398473D+00        -5.1151

 AIR_TTT   gene   2   -0.5134487D-03  0.8249172D+02         0.0000  0.2267537D+03
                                      0.1488755D-03        -3.4488

 AIR_FR    gene   3    0.9765844D+00  0.2789466D+01         0.3501  0.1152158D-02
                                      0.1287044D+00         7.5878

 INCOME    gene   4    0.5198021D+02  0.1462563D+00       355.4048  0.3030201D-02
                                      0.4674881D+02         1.1119


 alternative  3 : BUS       

 CONSTANT  spec   0   -0.1093414D+03  0.1992552D+01       -54.8751  0.1359070D-05
                                      0.9068402D+02        -1.2057

 BUS_CTT   gene   1   -0.1226854D+01  0.2476212D+01        -0.4955  0.4173133D-03
                                      0.2398473D+00        -5.1151

 BUS_TTT   gene   2   -0.5134487D-03  0.8249172D+02         0.0000  0.2267537D+03
                                      0.1488755D-03        -3.4488

 BUS_FR    gene   3    0.9765844D+00  0.2789466D+01         0.3501  0.1152158D-02
                                      0.1287044D+00         7.5878

 INCOME    gene   4    0.5198021D+02  0.1462563D+00       355.4048  0.3030201D-02
                                      0.4674881D+02         1.1119


 alternative  4 : CAR       

 CAR_C     gene   1   -0.1226854D+01  0.2476212D+01        -0.4955  0.4173133D-03
                                      0.2398473D+00        -5.1151

 CAR_RT    gene   2   -0.5134487D-03  0.8249172D+02         0.0000  0.2267537D+03
                                      0.1488755D-03        -3.4488



 box-cox transformations


 lambda 1   estimated  0.2615709D+00  0.1920984D+01         0.1362 -0.5482805D-02
                                                           -0.3844

 lambda 2   estimated  0.1519435D+01  0.4623222D+02         0.0329 -0.7996714D-03
                                                            0.0112

 lambda 3   estimated  0.1808946D+00  0.5275926D+02         0.0034  0.1966200D-02
                                                           -0.0155

 lambda 4   estimated -0.5133025D+00  0.1622606D+04        -0.0003  0.4868485D-01
                                                           -0.0009

 ================================================================================



 log likelihood with constants only =   -523.7791

 log likelihood at convergence      =   -323.2366

 likelihood ratio test ( 8 d.f.)    =    401.0848

 sum of squared residuals           =    428.2042

 rho-squared                        =      0.3829

 rho-squared bar -akaike            =      0.3619

                 -horowitz          =      0.3724

                 -hensher & johnson =      0.3803

 per cent right         =   75.50

 number of observations = 1000

 number of alternatives =    4

 number of parameters   =   11





 at the sample means of x :

   - elasticity

   - change in p(i) relative to percent change in x(j,k)

   - derivative of p(i) with respect to x(j,k)

 =====================================================================================================================================

 probability of :        RAIL       AIR        BUS        CAR       

 =====================================================================================================================================

 RAIL        CONSTANT  -0.762D+02 -0.744D+02 -0.806D+02  0.287D+02
                       -0.427D+01 -0.146D+02 -0.190D+01  0.208D+02
                       -0.427D+01 -0.146D+02 -0.190D+01  0.208D+02

             RAI_CTT   -0.327D+01  0.194D+00  0.194D+00  0.194D+00
                       -0.183D+00  0.381D-01  0.457D-02  0.141D+00
                       -0.346D-02  0.719D-03  0.862D-04  0.265D-02

             RAI_TTT   -0.271D+01  0.161D+00  0.161D+00  0.161D+00
                       -0.152D+00  0.316D-01  0.379D-02  0.117D+00
                       -0.519D-03  0.108D-03  0.129D-04  0.398D-03

             RAI_FR     0.121D+01 -0.715D-01 -0.715D-01 -0.715D-01
                        0.675D-01 -0.140D-01 -0.168D-02 -0.518D-01
                        0.153D-01 -0.319D-02 -0.382D-03 -0.118D-01

             INCOME     0.140D+00  0.140D+00  0.140D+00 -0.532D-01
                        0.783D-02  0.274D-01  0.329D-02 -0.386D-01
                        0.144D-06  0.506D-06  0.606D-07 -0.710D-06

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AIR         CONSTANT  -0.762D+02 -0.744D+02 -0.806D+02  0.287D+02
                       -0.427D+01 -0.146D+02 -0.190D+01  0.208D+02
                       -0.427D+01 -0.146D+02 -0.190D+01  0.208D+02

             AIR_CTT    0.901D+00 -0.369D+01  0.901D+00  0.901D+00
                        0.505D-01 -0.724D+00  0.212D-01  0.652D+00
                        0.326D-03 -0.467D-02  0.137D-03  0.421D-02

             AIR_TTT    0.221D+00 -0.904D+00  0.221D+00  0.221D+00
                        0.124D-01 -0.177D+00  0.520D-02  0.160D+00
                        0.783D-04 -0.112D-02  0.329D-04  0.101D-02

             AIR_FR    -0.343D+00  0.140D+01 -0.343D+00 -0.343D+00
                       -0.192D-01  0.276D+00 -0.808D-02 -0.248D+00
                       -0.770D-03  0.110D-01 -0.324D-03 -0.995D-02

             INCOME     0.140D+00  0.140D+00  0.140D+00 -0.532D-01
                        0.783D-02  0.274D-01  0.329D-02 -0.386D-01
                        0.144D-06  0.506D-06  0.606D-07 -0.710D-06

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 BUS         CONSTANT  -0.762D+02 -0.744D+02 -0.806D+02  0.287D+02
                       -0.427D+01 -0.146D+02 -0.190D+01  0.208D+02
                       -0.427D+01 -0.146D+02 -0.190D+01  0.208D+02

             BUS_CTT    0.674D-01  0.674D-01 -0.280D+01  0.674D-01
                        0.378D-02  0.132D-01 -0.659D-01  0.488D-01
                        0.148D-03  0.518D-03 -0.258D-02  0.191D-02

             BUS_TTT    0.716D-01  0.716D-01 -0.297D+01  0.716D-01
                        0.401D-02  0.141D-01 -0.700D-01  0.519D-01
                        0.132D-04  0.463D-04 -0.230D-03  0.171D-03

             BUS_FR    -0.360D-01 -0.360D-01  0.149D+01 -0.360D-01
                       -0.201D-02 -0.706D-02  0.351D-01 -0.260D-01
                       -0.170D-03 -0.597D-03  0.297D-02 -0.220D-02

             INCOME     0.140D+00  0.140D+00  0.140D+00 -0.532D-01
                        0.783D-02  0.274D-01  0.329D-02 -0.386D-01
                        0.144D-06  0.506D-06  0.606D-07 -0.710D-06

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 CAR         CAR_C      0.260D+01  0.260D+01  0.260D+01 -0.992D+00
                        0.146D+00  0.511D+00  0.613D-01 -0.718D+00
                        0.239D-02  0.839D-02  0.101D-02 -0.118D-01

             CAR_RT     0.131D+01  0.131D+01  0.131D+01 -0.501D+00
                        0.736D-01  0.258D+00  0.310D-01 -0.363D+00
                        0.340D-03  0.119D-02  0.143D-03 -0.168D-02

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 probability p(i)          0.0560     0.1963     0.0236     0.7241

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------





 weighted aggregate :

   - elasticity

   - change in p(i) relative to percent change in x(j,k)

   - derivative of p(i) with respect to x(j,k)

 =====================================================================================================================================

 probability of :        RAIL       AIR        BUS        CAR       

 =====================================================================================================================================

 RAIL        CONSTANT  -0.823D+02 -0.288D+02 -0.875D+02  0.965D+01
                       -0.633D+01 -0.112D+02 -0.421D+01  0.687D+01
                       -0.633D+01 -0.112D+02 -0.421D+01  0.687D+01

             RAI_CTT   -0.298D+01  0.108D+00  0.181D+00  0.107D+00
                       -0.227D+00  0.589D-01  0.150D-01  0.905D-01
                       -0.576D-02  0.882D-03  0.332D-03  0.238D-02

             RAI_TTT   -0.180D+01  0.104D+00  0.118D+00  0.591D-01
                       -0.128D+00  0.657D-01  0.112D-01  0.486D-01
                       -0.583D-03  0.176D-03  0.417D-04  0.230D-03

             RAI_FR     0.118D+01 -0.388D-01 -0.691D-01 -0.433D-01
                        0.939D-01 -0.203D-01 -0.551D-02 -0.367D-01
                        0.189D-01 -0.491D-02 -0.162D-02 -0.838D-02

             INCOME     0.163D+00  0.581D-01  0.169D+00 -0.191D-01
                        0.121D-01  0.218D-01  0.852D-02 -0.137D-01
                        0.290D-06  0.667D-06  0.432D-06 -0.398D-06

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AIR         CONSTANT  -0.823D+02 -0.288D+02 -0.875D+02  0.965D+01
                       -0.633D+01 -0.112D+02 -0.421D+01  0.687D+01
                       -0.633D+01 -0.112D+02 -0.421D+01  0.687D+01

             AIR_CTT    0.488D+00 -0.149D+01  0.430D+00  0.189D+00
                        0.332D-01 -0.609D+00  0.407D-01  0.101D+00
                        0.224D-03 -0.359D-02  0.276D-03  0.698D-03

             AIR_TTT    0.122D+00 -0.359D+00  0.964D-01  0.454D-01
                        0.839D-02 -0.156D+00  0.894D-02  0.231D-01
                        0.519D-04 -0.940D-03  0.611D-04  0.154D-03

             AIR_FR    -0.188D+00  0.556D+00 -0.158D+00 -0.703D-01
                       -0.126D-01  0.236D+00 -0.145D-01 -0.365D-01
                       -0.592D-03  0.940D-02 -0.903D-03 -0.253D-02

             INCOME     0.163D+00  0.581D-01  0.169D+00 -0.191D-01
                        0.121D-01  0.218D-01  0.852D-02 -0.137D-01
                        0.290D-06  0.667D-06  0.432D-06 -0.398D-06

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 BUS         CONSTANT  -0.823D+02 -0.288D+02 -0.875D+02  0.965D+01
                       -0.633D+01 -0.112D+02 -0.421D+01  0.687D+01
                       -0.633D+01 -0.112D+02 -0.421D+01  0.687D+01

             BUS_CTT    0.762D-01  0.401D-01 -0.258D+01  0.469D-01
                        0.802D-02  0.127D-01 -0.142D+00  0.393D-01
                        0.398D-03  0.438D-03 -0.636D-02  0.191D-02

             BUS_TTT    0.605D-01  0.422D-01 -0.210D+01  0.368D-01
                        0.620D-02  0.163D-01 -0.122D+00  0.303D-01
                        0.260D-04  0.459D-04 -0.468D-03  0.126D-03

             BUS_FR    -0.452D-01 -0.230D-01  0.156D+01 -0.285D-01
                       -0.462D-02 -0.679D-02  0.862D-01 -0.240D-01
                       -0.385D-03 -0.522D-03  0.450D-02 -0.140D-02

             INCOME     0.163D+00  0.581D-01  0.169D+00 -0.191D-01
                        0.121D-01  0.218D-01  0.852D-02 -0.137D-01
                        0.290D-06  0.667D-06  0.432D-06 -0.398D-06

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 CAR         CAR_C      0.250D+01  0.104D+01  0.261D+01 -0.315D+00
                        0.199D+00  0.436D+00  0.130D+00 -0.215D+00
                        0.473D-02  0.491D-02  0.261D-02 -0.525D-02

             CAR_RT     0.869D+00  0.678D+00  0.995D+00 -0.158D+00
                        0.805D-01  0.367D+00  0.629D-01 -0.860D-01
                        0.445D-03  0.112D-02  0.300D-03 -0.473D-03

 =====================================================================================================================================





 prediction success table

 =====================================================================================================================================

 alternative   RAIL      AIR       BUS       CAR       obs.count obs.share 

 =====================================================================================================================================

 RAIL            2.08      5.11      0.51     25.38     33.08      0.04

 AIR             3.08     77.73      0.89     32.28    113.98      0.12

 BUS             0.64      0.89      0.83     14.47     16.83      0.02

 CAR            27.27     30.25     14.60    703.24    775.36      0.83

 pred.count     33.08    113.98     16.83    775.37    939.26      1.00

 pred.share      0.04      0.12      0.02      0.83      1.00

 p.s.p.          0.06      0.68      0.05      0.91      0.83

 p.s.i.          0.03      0.56      0.03      0.08      0.14

 p.e.p.s.        0.00      0.00      0.00      0.00

 =====================================================================================================================================


 notes :

 obs.    : observed

 pred.   : predicted

 p.s.p.  : proportion successfully predicted

 p.s.i.  : prediction success index

 p.e.p.s.: proportional error in predicted share


CPU TIME:     25.66 sec
